Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 6 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 18 July 2026 at 22:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 5th strongest of the 40 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 7 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 5:28PM EDT until July 18 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
Urban PEI: 52,059 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 17 March 2026
- June 14, 2026 · score 34 · 5.5 km
- July 18, 2026 · score 43 · 13.3 km
- July 21, 2026 · score 32 · 15.4 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 39 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 39 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.79/1 |
| Coordinates | 37.9552, -77.0888 |
| Nearest City | Mechanicsville (46 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 52.1K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-18T21:28:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.eeccdf3379f6c2789dd17612e5f5e19e |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-18T21:28:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-18T21:30:22.689Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Essex, VA; Lancaster, VA; Northumberland, VA; Richmond, VA; Westmoreland, VA; Kent, DE; Sussex, DE; Caroline, MD; Queen Anne's, MD; Talbot, MD; Essex, VA; Northumberland, VA; Richmond, VA; Westmoreland, VA and 10 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 5:28PM EDT until July 18 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-07-18T18:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 13 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.eeccdf3379f6c2789dd17612e5f5e19ed5c7e1cd.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a115335455503480d20cfa1273b583a66f4b23ab.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f9f5600371143304339739e1c23d676bdaf751fc.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8746d54a68442f0c3371ef79f8aad4f3eee04c2f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1cb4921a6f628ec525035b9058d5e4b387af012c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ee8dfe4b0ad3bacb39a26c2344454fcbfbb5ef0c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0b3f53489083f590c9d730e31b1e663150eff9c1.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.01ed926c45019dce86abf75a76cf993fe378feaa.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.05fff0826d87bb9b92770dc6ac05d4b125779784.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ff8f6d441f4a1cf54502a5baf620d2df512dfd93.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5dddb8462b1c9b36357cda2ad8496c8b075aa7df.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.721df68eec12773ca6fca8e543287d8798a4342f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ff848ddc2d78cd64292fd933fe911cc599e7fd1c.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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